While there are several dozen researchers who think that Kite, myself and others have likely come up with the correct - or nearly correct - solutions to the unsolved Zodiac codes and the unsolved 18 from the first Z code (mostly two dozen at www.unazod.com
and another half dozen at www.zodiackillersite.forummotion.com
and a dozen or so others at websleuths and A&E Cold Case), there is no doubt that the majority of the general Zodiac research world, as seen at zodiackiller and zodiackillerfacts, have either dismissed the work without study, or stated after a very minimal quick and superficial look that our results are just coincidence and not significant.
I am pleased that it appears the FBI Code Unit is now looking at the work, and maybe sometime in the next few months we will hear something from them.
Aquiman from zkf, thebigZ at zks, has expressed interest in my code work. If I read him right, he was initially strongly inclined to dismiss it as wrong. But after reading more of my new work, and (here is where I give him props) taking the time to actually study it carefully, he told me he was impressed with the sheer amount of work and time I put into it, thought my approach was honest, that the work had logic and the results were quite interesting.
Still very skeptical, however, he wanted to put my results "under the microscope", and apply computer probability analysis, to either prove that my results were extraordinary and worthy of further study, or (as he thought would more likely be the case) disprove them. Show them to be the result of mere coincidence and/or faulty procedures, and thus not likely correct.
So I told him to go ahead, please apply whatever computer/math/logic/probability analysis he could, and to post his results, be they good, bad, mixed, inconclusive or decisive.
This is some of our discussion since then - hopefully the results will be soon!
The Big Z = I'm still here AK. Honestly, I SO WANT to be able to prove that you've forced your solution. I want to be able to show that it's NOT beyond mathematical probability. Truth is, I can't. Well... ok, I haven't really put forth the effort yet. But I think I'm going to try. If nothing else, maybe I can just show that you've be onto something all along.
No, I'm not a fan of anagramming and it's difficult for me to accept it as a reasonable possibility. But I suppose Z was not exactly a reasonable person. I'm not ready to jump on the bandwagon just yet... but I think I'll put on a fresh thinking cap. I'll let you know what kind of probabilities I can come up with.
AK = A month later I asked thebigZ how he was coming along on his project to prove/disprove the code solutionsof Kite and myself, and this what he told me:
The Big Z = Hi AK,
Just wanted to let you know I haven't given up on the probability analysis yet. I've run into quite a few obstacles along the way, however.
A "closed end" probability solution is not likely (as I've surmised after several days of trying several approaches).
Subsequently, I've begun writing a Monte Carlo program, which will generate random sequences of 18 letters and determine if a Caesar shift of -9, -6, -3, 0, +3, +6, or +9 could generate the name Theodore J Kascynski.
That's turning out not to be very easy either, but I hope to have it completed by the end of next week. I'm going to generate a few million runs or so to surmise a reasonable probability of success. My hope is that we will have either a higher than anticipated or an extremely small probability of success so that we might be able to formulate a concise conclusion; however, my gut feeling is that the probability will be small, but not small enough to dismiss coincidence. I'll keep you posted on my progress.
AK = Thanks for the update.
That is an interesting approach and I look forward to seeing the results.
What is your guesstimate as to what the percentage might be? In other words, if I understand you correctly, out of all the possible 18 letter combinations, what percentage can generate the 18 letter TJK name using Caesar shifts of 0, 3, 6 and 9 (+ and -)?One problem may be that there are particular qualities of the number string that generates the TJK name that I find significant, but that you may not - or even if you do, there may be no way to incorporate them into a computer probablility analysis.
No doubt a large number of letter strings can create the TJK name with the Caesar application BUT I contend it is significant that the "E B E..." string that Zodiac gives us creates:
0 3 3 696 33 669966 99 6 0
It starts and ends with 0, it has a pattern that appears first as a single then as a double - 3 6 9 6, 33 66 99 66 - and the numbers that make up THEODORE add up to 33, which is in the name twice, and the numbers that make up JKACZYNSKI add up to 66, which is in the name twice.
But as I say, it may be difficult to impossible to factor in those aspects.
It will be interesting to see what you come up with, I think it is a good examination. Thanks.
One other thought -
I realize that you may not be able to incorporate most of the aspects of what makes the solution unique into your analysis, the stuff I mentioned in my last PM to you.
But one thing I wanted to alert you to, in hopes that it might be used.
In the 18 letter name Theodore J Kaczynski, there are three sets of double letters - EE, OO, KK.
In the Kite/Wilks solution and analysis proposed here, all three sets of double letters are also represented by double letters -
the EE by HH, the OO by II, and the KK by EE.
So out of the large number of 18 letter strings you will get that can create the TJK name in a Caesar Code 0,3,6,9 analysis, my question would be "How many of those have each of the three sets of double letters also represented by double letters?"
Because that arguably speaks to intent and design.
AK = We look forward to the results, whatever they may be. Good, bad, mixed, inconclusive, decisive...I will post them, and give my response.
I think right now thebigZ is focusing on the Kite/Wilks solution and analysis to the Unsolved 18 from the first Zodiac Code. I would also really love it for him to take a look at the 340 first stage solution with I GIVE THEM HELL THEO SEE A NAME that I think is correct, with the second stage decode by Caesar Code 0-3-6-9 shift analysis that gives us KACZYNSKI.
I thought I would post this to let people know what would be coming, and also so that if anyone has any ideas on how to do this, please let me and/or thebigZ know.