Thanks to Sean for the questions/criticisms, and of course for TBZ/Aqui for undertaking this project.
There were and are two main objections to the Kite - Wilks code work -
1. You can get other names using the method
and, it is related,
2. The appearance of the name THEODORE J KACZYNSKI is likely just random chance
In fact many told me that given the Caesar method, they thought it 90 to 100% likely the TJK name would come up in ANY 18 letter string; others said it was "probably" the case it would come up in any string, or "more then likely" that it would.
So, if those who dismissed the code work in its entirety because they thought the odds were 50% or better, what is their reaction now that the final results show the odds to be 3% or less for THEODOREJ and 5% for KACZYNSKI? And even 1% or less for both? So far the reaction is "Doesn't matter."
If the analysis shows only a 5% chance of random occurence, can we say that it also shows a 95% likelihood that the name was placed? I think so, but I honestly don't know for sure.
If there is a 95% likelihood the name "Theodore J Kaczynski" was placed in the unsolved 18 from the first Zodiac Code, does the prove that Kaczynski was the Zodiac? No, not automatically and not by itself.
First, you have to consider all the other evidence pointing to TK as a suspect (he lived in the area, he did become a serial killer, he knew about codes and bomb designs, similar handwriting, similar in many ways to the sketches) plus any evidence in mitigation pointing towards TK not being Zodiac.
Then you have to ask, "If the TJK name was placed, what are reasonable explanations"?
1. The name occurs by random chance.
It seems the final outcome of the analysis by TBZ/Aqui, it that there is a 5% or less chance of this. If the chance is 20% or greater, that will be one thing - another thing if it is around 10% - and another thing if it is 3% or less. But, based on the preliminary numbers, it is appearing very unlikley the name would appear by chance. It seems the final numbers will be around 1% of both 9 digit names by a random chance. I find that very impressive - I now know some agree, and some disagree. And then although TBZ/Aqui may not have the desire or time to carry the analysis this far, you would also need to ask why "THEODORE J KACZYNSKI" or "THEO KACZYNSKI" appears in all the other Zodiac Codes, and what the odds of that happening by chance are.
2. Someone, the real Zodiac Killer, placed the name in the codes.
Kaczynski was a math professor at Berkeley. Could someone - maybe a disgruntled student, a rival professor, a reader of his journal articles - have placed his name in the codes? I suppose it is possible. But it seems highly unlikely. Ted mostly kept to himself. He made very few friends, none really, and at the same time, no known enemies. I can't think of any reason why someone would put his name into the codes. It just doesn't hold water.
3. "Zodiac" was a team of two or more persons - Ted did the code work and put his name into them, but someone else was the actual killer.
There have been some group theories in the Z case. But the bulk of the evidence supports the notion that Zodiac is one man. That one man wrote the letters, wrote the car door message, did the codes and did the killings.
4. Ted Kaczynski was the Zodiac, and as the Zodiac told us, his "name" and "identity" were in the codes, and if the codes were cracked we would "have" him.
Given that Ted Kaczynski generally matches the Zodiac description, lived in the SF Bay area at the time, had expertise in codes and bombs, and DID become a serial killer who wrote letters to newspapers extorting his words onto the front page, this is clearly the simplest, most logical, most direct and IMO most likely answer...IF we can conclude that there is a very high likelihood (95% or better) that the name was placed.
You CAN indeed get other names out of the 18 unsolved, using a Caesar Code matrix based on +9, +6, +3, 0, -3, -6, -9 shifts. That is a weakness. I admit that.
By Zsearcher : GARETH SEWELL PENN ZK
My Take: A decent effort. But this doesn't work. The "ZK" is just thrown in, it doesn't make any sense.
So we have a 16 letter name. As such, it has to be disregarded, because the two extra letters when Caesar shifted give you 14 letters to pick from - it invalidates (pretty much completely IMO, maybe TBZ/Aqui can clarify) the production of a name of 16 letters. Zodiac gives us 18 letters at the end, and it has to be an 18 letter name for the probability analysis to hold up. In fact, I think Penn mostly went by the style of "GARETH PENN" or "GARETH S PENN", which are 10 and 11 letter names. Ted did sign his papers "Theodore J Kaczynski", and in a code he devised as a young man, told the person he hid "the 18 letters of his name" in the musical composition on the last letter of each line.
By Glurk: Here are a few more names that will fit, using just the last 17 (or 18):
BY ANGEL KRISTOPHEN
KENNY JOSH FREDERICK
CHRISTOPHER B NEWIK
BUNKEY JUG WILBERTH
WILBERT SHULY CHEVY
CHRISTOPHER Q HYNN NJ
BY JOHN ELY KRISTOPHE
WILBERTH KENN MARCE
NESTON W CHRISTOPHE
My Take: Also a good effort. My response would be, most of these don't sound like real names. I doubt there is a "BUNKEY JUG WILBERTH" in the 1969 San Fran phone book. Maybe the Alabama phone book (Sorry JON!!!) If there was a KENNY JOSH FREDERICK in the 1969 SF phone book, then I would question, "Is he a white male between the ages of 25 and 40 in 1969? Did he look somewhat like the sketch? Does he have expertise in code making and bomb design? Is there any evidence he was or became a serial killer? Etc. Etc."
In other words, the production of ANY name in the code - TJK, GP, anyone - is ONE element of evidence to be considered.
There are also all the unique elements attached to the TJK name as it appears in the code, most or all of which we don't find with any other name that can be produced in the code - the EE, OO, KK are matched by double letters in the EBE string, the internal math, the patterns, etc., etc. I have gone over all these repeatedly so I will spare you all! Anyone who hasn't seen this analysis it is here:viewtopic.php?f=14&t=86&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
Also, remember you can't get Arthur Leigh Allen, or Richard Gaikowski, or any name with more than one "A", from the Unsolved 18 Caesar matrix. In fact, most of the names glurk came up with were rather silly and contrived, and most not likely real names. So, it is true you can get some other names, but its not like you can get most of the names in the SF phone book. Then, you have the question of why the TJK name alone, of all the suspect names, ALSO appears in the My Name Is, Map Code and Zodiac 340.
I need to be clear/honest about something... It's true, the percentages ARE a lot less than I expected. However, I've subsequently spoken with two separate analysts at work, who have stated that I should not put much weight on those numbers given the near-infinite number of solutions. I believe that the largest meaning they hold, is that the assumption that "you can obtain that name from any set of letters" is incorrect. I don't think it was fair for people to state that assumption as if it were fact... it's not. AK, I still believe it's possible we can narrow things down a bit with your suggestions, results of which would ultimately hold more meaning/weight than we can assign to these numbers. I apologize for initially "misinterpreting" the significance of these results, but I'm muddling through this as well. It was not my intent to mislead, but simply to obtain a probability. I don't intend on letting this die. It's a "work in progress." As I stated previously, I would appreciate anyone with an opinion to weigh in on this. New sets of eyes and ideas can only help.
Big Z/Aquiman - you have done an amazing job of putting this work together. I wish I could completely comprehend the art of de-coding and analyzing pieces as you and others are very able to do. Although I realize that the probabilities are still not 100%, it does help to narrow down the possibility that TK's name is encompassed in the Z codes, and narrowing in on the high possibility that, added to the inumerable pieces of circumstantial evidence against him, TK may, in fact, truly be the infamous Zodiac Killer.
Thanks again for all your hard work (and AK, too)!